The results of the local elections on 4^th  May 2006 will be used as much as the electorate’s purported verdict on David Cameron’s leadership as a referendum on Mr Blair’s continued premiership.  Already the “hurdles” that the Conservatives are being required to clear before being able to claim success have been raised ominously.

“Overall, election analysts believe the Tories should be looking for an extra 300 councillors in England to be able to claim victory,”

we are told and,

“In London, the Tories did relatively well in last year's general election and so Mr Cameron cannot have any excuses if he fails to make real progress.”

However, for the Liberal Democrats,

 “According to the analysts, 100 overall gains would make it a good night for Sir Menzies while net losses would be seen as a bad performance.”

The problem for the Conservatives is that at a local election level, Labour has been unpopular for a few years now. Conservative seats that fell to other parties during the last years of  John Major's Conservative Government have been recovered, more or less. Furthermore, the most vulnerable Labour seats have already fallen to the opposition parties.  A protest vote against Labour councillors is more likely to benefit the Liberal Democrats than the Conservatives.  Thus, though the Conservatives will make steady progress, it will be the Liberal Democrats who will appear to be the winners of the forthcoming local elections.  Even “election experts”,

 “admit it will not be easy for [David Cameron] to make sweeping gains because the Tories are already the largest party in local government,”

and,

 “Far from shooting at an open goal, David Cameron's first nationwide electoral test in May [2006] sees him having to defend something of a Conservative high water mark,”

according to Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of the Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre at Plymouth University.

The Conservatives will not achieve 300 gains.  It is nonsense to suggest they should, while holding the Liberal Democrats to a mere 100.[1]  At this point, is important to bear in mind that as far as local politics are concerned, this is a three horse race.  After all, the Liberal Democrats have 4,300 councillors and control 34 authorities.

For the opposition parties to achieve their gains, Labour will have to suffer 400 net losses.[2]  Unless the Labour vote collapses, this is a tall order.  Whilst the English blogosphere has taken largely against Labour, opinion polls indicate that the general public has not.  Labour has already lost most of its vulnerable seats.  Votes for the opposition might pile up in seats already lost, but Labour is not going to lose many hundreds more seats.

 The Conservatives must be careful not to accept or have foisted upon them a “consensus” as to how many gains they must achieve before they are considered successful, particularly when the Liberal Democrats are being allowed such a modest target by “the experts”. Unless the Conservatives  inject some realism into the projections currently being broached, they will hand a “victory” to the Liberal Democrats, let Labour off the hook and provoke unending speculation about David Cameron's leadership and the Party’s future prospects.[3]