Mr Parris as prescient as ever, predicts the new scramble for Africa.

Gordon Brown is having a particularly hard time of it at the moment, but from such a low point any success can be spun as a turning point.  The Media tells us that the next fortnight will be critical for him, the dark inference being that if he does not deal with the challenges to his authority in that time, his premiership will be damaged permanently.  Labour, we are told, is facing a “meltdown” in the local elections to be held on 1^st May.  The Government is “facing defeat” concerning its proposal to detain without charge terrorist suspects for up to forty-two days.  There will be a “rebellion” if something is not done to compensate the lowly paid for the abolition of the ten per cent tax band.  To cap it all, The Guardian reports that Labour might lose the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, when that contest takes place.

We have been here before, as Labour support was supposed to be facing potential meltdown in the local elections of 2006 and 2007.  It didn’t happen, nor was it ever likely to have done. The plain truth is that the Labour Party would have to be led by Adolf Hitler or Beelzebub himself before its core support failed to turn out at any election.  On the other hand, the opportunities for advance by the Conservatives are limited. Having been successful in local elections during the past two years, the Conservatives have reached already a high tide mark and are the incumbent administration in many a council, with all the risk that entails.  For the first time in twenty-seven years Ken Livingstone is being forced to fight hard for continued control of London, but he is likely to win the latest mayoral contest, though by a whisker.  In the Crewe by-election, the Conservatives will come a creditable second, but win they will not.  With vague promises of “putting things right” for the lower paid, Gordon Brown will avoid an embarrassing (and costly) U-turn on his tax policy.  Arms will be twisted and even more vague promises will be made to ensure that the time for detention of terrorist suspects is extended.

Having first overstated the strength or significance of the challenges faced by Mr Brown, the Media will then perceive the Government as having passed crucial tests. It will then pause to dwell upon the Conservatives “lack” of (local) electoral success.  From 2^nd May it will be the turn of David Cameron and the Conservatives’ to face the heat.

“…Corruption tends to flourish the longer an incumbent is able to hold on to power”

said Ken Livingstone in 1998, as Simon Jenkins reminds us.