I remember sitting in my kitchen in the summer of 1987, reading The Sunday Times and pondering how my Party (as I was then a member) had managed to win its third election in a row. Reading an article headed by a photograph of Neil Kinnock's new Shadow Cabinet, had prompted my thoughts. They looked a forlorn bunch, destined for more heartbreak. I had been involved in the General Election campaign that year, as a foot soldier. I was aware how amateur the Conservative Party organisation was at ground level. I knew how the 'touchy-feely pinko-lefty fag' wing, the 'smiling face' of the Party (of which I was one) had been reduced to an irrelevant rump. And yet the Party kept winning.  I knew instinctively that it could not continue.  It was not natural.

The first shock, when the Conservative opinion poll lead evaporated almost literally overnight, occurred on the 19th October 1987, Black Monday.  Stock markets across the world slumped and our economy reeled. Public confidence in the Conservative Government was severely shaken. Although the Conservatives went on to win the 1992 Election, it was a close run thing.  The second shock was fatal, as the opinion polls finally turned decisively against the Conservatives. Sterling had tumbled out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. It was 16th September 1992. The Public had lost all confidence. It mattered not that both Labour and the Liberal Democrats were at one with the Conservatives in believing that Sterling should be within the ERM, neither did it matter that that 'bum's march' out of the ERM Club turned out to have impacted so positively upon the Economy of the United Kingdom  in the years following the debacle.

This past weekend, Michael Howard has taken criticism for having said (in so many words) that Labour must be seen to be in difficulty managing the economy before the Conservatives can win an Election. Much of the criticism seemed to be aimed at the timing of this pronouncement. Whether or not Mr Howard's timing was right, this particular Home Truth needed to be told.  I am reminded of all this as I read about the Conservative Party's purported current fortunes. It seems that even the next Election is now beyond them, but I have read it all before. Four years is a long time in politics. It takes just a day to reverse fortunes. The Conservatives appeared incapable of winning in the late Sixties, saddled with an uncharismatic Edward Heath as Leader, but won in 1970.

William Hague did not lose an election because the Public did not like him or because he was bald. Mr Howard did not lose because he was associated with Margaret Thatcher or because he might be 'of the night'. If the Labour Government had been perceived to be mishandling the economy either before the election in 2001 or 2005 it would not have won. Unlike the Conservative Chancellors of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown has not suffered any setbacks such as Black Monday or Black Wednesday. The economic storm that is coming is not only home made but of his own making; he will fall all the harder and so will his Party.  The party should keep true to its core values and wait its Time. This will not be so long in coming.