Much has been made of Francis Maude’s comment that the Conservatives might not win the next General Election. Why? Commentators have been saying as much since before David Cameron was elected as leader.  We are informed repeatedly that the Conservatives require a percentage “swing” in their favour well beyond anything they have ever achieved against Labour in any General Election since 1945.  Commentators have been talking down the Conservative Party’s prospects of winning an election ever since doubts began to surface about Tony Blair’s Government.  That the Conservatives cannot achieve such a swing is not an immutable law. It is the result of a number of factors, not least of which is that the psephologists seem to miss the point that until 1997, all Labour administrations since 1945 seemed to expire after about six years, whilst save for that of Edward Heath, Conservative ones lasted thirteen and eighteen years, respectively.  By the next General Election the New Labour administration will have reached that longevity where if it has not turned substantially from its current course, it will be punished at the polls in a fashion that had been reserved previously for Conservative Governments that had overstayed their welcome.