The Liberal Democrats cannot continue to suffer a drain of support such as that disclosed today in an ICM poll conducted for The Guardian. The poll shows Conservative support reaching 39% and Labour support recovering to 35%. The Liberal Democrats have slumped to 17%. In the past, ICM polls have tended to underestimate support for the Conservatives but have been kinder to both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There is not any reason to believe that this latest poll is any different, such that the haemorrhaging of support for the Liberal Democrats might be even worse.
Good results in individual contests have always been the method by which the Liberal Democrats have declared to the World that they are alive and kicking and “Winning Here!” Those results have provided a fillip to activist morale and convinced the voting public that they can really challenge the major parties and are a force to be reckoned with. It is why they take by-elections so very seriously, calling in manpower nationwide and ensuring that every single ward in a constituency is fully leafleted, canvassed and on Election Day, every promised vote, delivered.[1] However, the ICM poll shows that the result of the recent Bromley and Chislehurst by-election, into which the Liberal Democrats invested such a considerable effort, has not brought an end to the party’s declining support amongst the electorate.
The Liberal Democrats are drifting in a way that would not have happened under Charles Kennedy. Following Mr Kennedy’s expulsion from the leadership following a cabal by some of his “colleagues”, it seemed that Sir Menzies Campbell was the “safe pair of hands” that the Party needed and that he would “steady the ship.” Notwithstanding the Liberal Democrats’ confident boasts and swagger, they knew that a resurgent Conservative Party under the leadership of Mr David Cameron would robustly challenge their tenure of Parliamentary seats in South East England. So long as Mr Cameron’s star ascended, wiser heads amongst the Liberal Democrats knew that the time for advance was over and consolidation was the order of the day. By that means and with the current electoral system loaded against an outright Conservative General Election victory, they would seek to force either of the major parties into a coalition Government.
Sir Menzies Campbell was the man for the job, or so it seemed. In truth he has turned out to be a grave disappointment. His performances in the House of Commons have been average at the best,[2] and in the political world at large he is almost invisible. His policy announcements have been incoherent and reactive to events. He has let it be known that he is “a man of the left” leaving the inevitable inference that he would seek a pact to form a Government with his Labour friend Gordon Brown in the event of there being no outright winner in the next General Election. Thus we shall have the prospect of two Scottish MPs, each representing Scottish constituencies agreeing how an increasingly Conservative
The longer that Sir Menzies Campbell is allowed to ramble and meander along, the more damage will be done to the party, but Young Guns in the party cannot depose him. The Liberal Democrats have already had one recent “night of the long knives”. The public would never understand them having two such coups in one Parliament. However, they have a chance of salvation that would never be available to either Labour or the Conservatives. If Sir Menzies Campbell can be induced to stand down, they can re-elect their old leader, Charles Kennedy. He has already indicated that he is “not finished yet”. He is lucky, plucky, the public like him and in consequence he is a winner, but the Liberal Democrats must act quickly. Time is not on their side. Sooner rather than later, Labour and the Conservatives will wake up as to how they must adequately resource their efforts in terms of manpower in order to stymie Liberal Democrat successes at both local and by-election level. If not riding high in the opinion polls with a popular leader, deprived of their local authority and by election victory life blood, the Liberal Democrats will gradually fade away.
[1] Forget the ridiculously misleading bar charts, disingenuous Focus leaflets and negative style of campaigning. The Liberal Democrats win or are a close second in by-elections because they work harder and are better organised. For Labour or the Conservatives, there is no such thing as a safe seat at a by-election.
[2] The explanations that he does not look impressive in Parliament because for instance at Prime Minister’s Questions he can ask only two questions and cannot stand at the despatch box does not hold water. The simple fact is that he does not hold the attention of The House and his authority is draining away as a consequence. Some great Parliamentarians have made their presence felt whilst standing a very long way away from the despatch box and the front benches.