With Gordon Brown’s popularity declining by the day, seemingly ever quicker since the Budget debacle and now the revelation that he was fully aware of the damage that would be caused by his raid on pension funds, Conservative supporters can be forgiven for beginning to take for granted the prospect of a clear election victory within the course of the next two years.  The Government's flagship policies have failed and it is bereft of new ideas.  It is seen as (and is) incompetent and venal.  It has lost the trust of large swathes of the electorate.  It is inconceivable that, barring some serious political misfortune befalling David Cameron, the Conservatives will not win a majority at the next General Election.  Commentators such as Michael Portillo and Charles Moore are right to warn against over optimism on the part of the Conservatives, given that we are as much as two years away from the next General Election. Nevertheless it is unlikely that a Gordon Brown administration can pull anything out of the hat.  The smell of decay and sense of decline is too strong.

There is a danger that many Conservatives overlook at their peril.  Matthew Parris has alluded to it in his column in The Times.  Gordon Brown will lose the next General Election, but the Conservatives will secure but a tiny majority – a majority that evaporates after only a handful of by-election defeats.  It will be a weak Conservative administration that is at the mercy of the elements and will fall at the very next General Election.

In 2009/2010 there will be too many factors that militate against a handsome majority for the Conservatives - a majority that is so important for strong leadership and Government and the essential foundation of a second consecutive Conservative term.  Labour might well be embarrassed in the elections that are to take place in May 2007 but do not expect those deserting Labour supporters to do the same in a General Election.  Disappointed with their Government they might be, but desirous of a Conservative administration they are not.  Neither should it be forgotten that many electors employed in the public sector depend upon Gordon Brown’s largesse.  They are hardly likely to vote for an administration that is never going to be so generous.   Then there is the current bias in the electoral system which might hand at least a dozen seats to Labour which strictly speaking on a vote for vote basis should belong to the Conservatives.  Neither should the Liberal Democrats be underestimated.  Whilst they will not enjoy a fillip such as that generated by Michael Brown’s considerable donation immediately prior to the General Election in 2005 the membership will be fighting hard to return their sitting MPs.  Many of their seats might only have majorities of a few hundred but few will fall.  Sandra Gidley (Romsey) and Chris Huhne (Eastleigh) will still be there after the next General Election.  It is still not fully appreciated that the “anyone but a Tory” tactical voting campaign that developed following Labour’s 1992 election defeat is still practised amongst many voters opposed to the Conservatives.  Then there is UKIP which so many Europhobic Conservatives are promising to support rather than the Cameron led Conservatives.  Commentators are agreed that these Conservatives could not bear to contribute to an historic fourth consecutive Labour election victory, but yes they could and yes they will.  The inability to make any great inroads in Scotland and Wales, or significant gains in Labour heartlands and recovery of seats lost to the Liberal Democrats in the south will deny the Conservatives a landslide.  Labour has to be well and truly broken for that.  It isn’t, yet.

This is where David Miliband could prove to be the Conservatives' saviour.  Should he become the next Prime Minister rather than Gordon Brown he would achieve what John Major managed in 1992.  The Conservative lead in the opinion polls would evaporate temporarily and in the hastily called General Election in late 2008/early 2009 Labour would be returned for its fourth consecutive term but with a small, even tiny majority.  It is at this point that Labour’s wheel will truly fall off and the Party will be broken.  Miliband cannot create a Cabinet full of fresh new faces.  It would have to include some of the old timers with form.  There will be those in the Party whose political ambitions are thwarted by the young upstart, including Gordon Brown.  The fault lines in this new Labour administration will be present from day one.  The administration will be racked by internal feuding.  The “Old Labour” MPs will seethe that a Blairite has stolen the Crown.  It will not be a strong, united administration.  For the first time in over twelve years the Government will be opposed by an invigorated opposition, led by David Cameron, an opposition only a handful of by-election victories away from bringing it down.  The Country will expect.  The Government will fail to deliver.  The Conservatives will romp to decisive victory.

Of course, the Conservative high command has worked out all of this by itself, hence the misinformation being leaked to the press concerning their fearing a Miliband Premiership and the setting up of an anti-Miliband unit.

Then again, and this is the beauty of politics, it could all be bluff and double bluff.

A Government with a small majority is vulnerable only if the opposition is strong.  The Labour Party consigned to opposition in 2009/2010 will not be strong.  It will be demoralised and disunited just as it was following its election defeat in 1979.  It will bear little resemblance to the Labour Party that unexpectedly lost the 1970 General Election but which reversed that result only three and a half years later in 1974.  There will be recriminations and disunity.  The Labour opposition will not look like a Government in waiting.  Mr Cameron could still win his second term.