Should a General Election be called now, David Cameron and his Conservatives are destined for another crushing defeat, opine many Media soothsayers.  This prediction relies upon an ICM Poll published in The Guardian on 19^th September 2007, one of a number of polls showing an indifferent Conservative performance in the face of the “Brown Bounce”.  Inter alia, the poll indicates that amongst voters support for the Conservatives has fallen to 32%, whilst support for Labour has risen to 40%.

That such opinion poll results should cause such excitement amongst Labour supporters and fellow travellers in the media, whilst causing those of a Conservative persuasion much angst, is curious.  It is not as if we haven’t been here before.  In fact since 2005, we have been here no less than three times.

In the weekend before the General Election that took place on 5^th May 2005, an ICM poll published in The Sunday Telegraph put support for the Conservatives at 31% and for Labour at 38%.  A few days earlier, another ICM poll commissioned by The Guardian had indicated that support for Labour had reached as high as 40%.  On the day of the real McCoy, whilst the Conservatives achieved a relatively indifferent 32.3% of the national vote, Labour achieved only 35.3%, in other words between 2.7 to 4.7 percentage points less than predicted.  The ICM poll commissioned for and published by The Guardian immediately prior to the local elections in May 2006 showed support for the Conservatives at 34% and Labour at 32%.  Lest we forget, the result of the elections was 39%¹ of the vote for the Conservatives and a paltry 26% for Labour.  Similarly, for May 2007 the ICM poll published in the week immediately preceding the elections predicted support form the Conservatives at 38% and for Labour at 29%.  The actual result was 40% and 26%², respectively.  All of the pollsters have been off the mark, not just ICM.  In recent years, opinion polls have consistently and to a significant degree understated support for the Conservatives whereas Labour’s predicted share of the vote has been overgenerous, sometimes by a wide margin.

Each of the main parties needs to take a reality check.  In all likelihood, as matters stand at this very moment, the Labour Government is nowhere near as popular as it would like to believe and the Conservatives not so far adrift as their detractors would like us to think.

¹ Or 40% depending upon which psephologist’s analysis you prefer.

²  Or 27%, ditto.