Most seasoned commentators believe that Gordon Brown had intended to review whether to call a General Election no earlier than the spring of 2008.  It is most probable that he had always planned to tease the Conservatives with the faintest hint of an even earlier poll just to wrong foot them and probe their weaknesses.

In recent weeks, the teasing has gone too far with everyone outside the political world anticipating an early, autumn election.  Mr Brown has overplayed his hand.  If he now resorts to his original, carefully considered and planned timetable, he will look indecisive, but if he “goes for it”, he will find that his lead in the opinion polls is soft and he might well receive a bloody nose, securing a small majority vulnerable to a just a handful of by-election losses.

Far too much emphasis and reliance has been placed upon mere opinion polls  and too little upon real election results. Professor Colin Rallings, the Director of Plymouth University’s Elections Centre, has already drawn attention to the fact that in thirty-five council by-elections since Gordon Brown’s succession to the premiership, the Conservatives have recorded a nine percentage point lead over Labour.

One way or another, Gordon Brown is going to rue the day he allowed the “will-he-won’t-he-game” slip out of his control.

Quit stalling and call election, says David Cameron